# OddsPit

> Quantitative prediction-market edge finder for Kalshi (primary) with optional
> Polymarket cross-platform arbitrage. Scans 300+ live Kalshi markets every 5
> minutes using 14 quantitative signals: spread inefficiency, volume surge,
> near-expiry entropy, news sentiment, calibration bias (historical NO-asymmetry),
> longshot detection, retail spread harvesting, smart-money flow, time-of-day edge,
> maker execution, crypto price lag (log-normal model vs BTC/ETH/SOL spot),
> Kelly position sizing, EV optimization, and Kalshi↔Polymarket cross-platform arb.

## About
- Product: OddsPit SaaS dashboard (Kalshi-first)
- URL: https://oddspit.com
- Category: FinTech / Prediction Markets / Quantitative Trading
- Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market
- Pricing: Free tier (top 5 Kalshi markets) · Pro $29/mo · Annual $199/yr

## Signals
- Spread: YES+NO deviation from 1.00
- Volume Surge: 24h vol / open-interest ratio
- Near-Expiry: entropy in markets expiring within 7 days
- News Sentiment: Google News RSS cross-referenced with mid-price
- Calibration Bias: historical resolved-market NO-asymmetry
- Crypto Lag: log-normal probability vs BTC/ETH/SOL spot price
- Cross-Platform Arb: Kalshi ↔ Polymarket price comparison (optional)
- Smart Money: whale wallet position tracking
- Longshot: insurance on <7% / >93% tails
- Retail: sports/politics spread harvesting
- Time Edge: overnight ET window performance boost
- Maker Execution: limit-order recommendation based on depth
- Kelly Sizing: mathematically optimal position size
- EV Optimizer: expected value per dollar risked

## Content
- Blog: https://oddspit.com/blog — strategy, research, and arbitrage playbooks
- Forum: https://oddspit.com/forum — community edge strategies and market ideas
- Careers: https://oddspit.com/careers — open roles

## Data Sources
- Kalshi API: https://trading-api.kalshi.com (primary)
- Polymarket Gamma API: https://gamma-api.polymarket.com (optional, arb only)
- CoinGecko API: https://api.coingecko.com
- Google News RSS (background batched polling)

## Research Basis
Signals are grounded in academic prediction-market microstructure research
including calibration curves, maker-taker gap analysis, and excess-return
studies.  Calibration bias uses a hybrid empirical+theoretical curve that
sharpens automatically as resolved market history accumulates.

## Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.
## Not financial advice. For informational purposes only.